2002 Governor · TX
Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 50%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.96% · Republican 57.81%
R+17.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 50 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 39.961 − 57.808 = -17.847
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-17.847) = 2.848
- Absolute miss = |2.848| = 2.848
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25422, race ID 1413 (538 database).