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2004 House · SD-1

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 48.3%

R+2.8

The certified result

Democrat 53.36% · Republican 45.91%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 48.3 = -2.80
  2. Actual margin = 53.364 − 45.915 = 7.449
  3. Signed miss = -2.80 − (7.449) = -10.250
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.250| = 10.250

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25378, race ID 3512 (538 database).