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2004 President · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-4.673) = 5.673
  4. Absolute miss = |5.673| = 5.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25365, race ID 760 (538 database).