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2004 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 758 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 62%

R+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.72% · Republican 66.18%

R+32.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 62 = -39.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.717 − 66.178 = -32.461
  3. Signed miss = -39.00 − (-32.461) = -6.539
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.539| = 6.539

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25353, race ID 1634 (538 database).