2004 Senate · OH
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 62%
R+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 36.15% · Republican 63.85%
R+27.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 62 = -27.00
- Actual margin = 36.145 − 63.849 = -27.704
- Signed miss = -27.00 − (-27.704) = 0.704
- Absolute miss = |0.704| = 0.704
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25344, race ID 1638 (538 database).