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2004 President · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 819 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 50%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.107) = 1.107
  4. Absolute miss = |1.107| = 1.107

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25343, race ID 790 (538 database).