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2004 Senate · AR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 549 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.90% · Republican 44.07%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.898 − 44.070 = 11.828
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (11.828) = -1.828
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.828| = 1.828

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25274, race ID 1617 (538 database).