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2004 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 40.6%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 40.6 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (-11.520) = 14.220
  4. Absolute miss = |14.220| = 14.220

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25267, race ID 1639 (538 database).