2004 House · CO-7
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 46%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.79% · Republican 54.72%
R+11.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 42.793 − 54.718 = -11.925
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-11.925) = 5.925
- Absolute miss = |5.925| = 5.925
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25178, race ID 3232 (538 database).