2004 Senate · CO
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%
D+4.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.770) = 1.230
- Absolute miss = |1.230| = 1.230
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25133, race ID 1619 (538 database).