Skip to content

2004 Senate · KY

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.34% · Republican 50.66%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.343 − 50.657 = -1.314
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.314) = 1.314
  4. Absolute miss = |1.314| = 1.314

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25128, race ID 1629 (538 database).