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2004 Senate · KY

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.34% · Republican 50.66%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.343 − 50.657 = -1.314
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.314) = 0.314
  4. Absolute miss = |0.314| = 0.314

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25127, race ID 1629 (538 database).