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2004 President · IA

Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.23% · Republican 49.90%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.233 − 49.901 = -0.668
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-0.668) = -3.332
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.332| = 3.332

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25110, race ID 767 (538 database).