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2004 President · FL

Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-5.007) = 10.006
  4. Absolute miss = |10.006| = 10.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25109, race ID 764 (538 database).