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2004 Senate · CO

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.770) = -0.770
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.770| = 0.770

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25078, race ID 1619 (538 database).