Skip to content

2006 Senate · TX

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26.6% · Republican 61.1%

R+34.5

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 61.69%

R+25.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.6 − 61.1 = -34.50
  2. Actual margin = 36.045 − 61.692 = -25.647
  3. Signed miss = -34.50 − (-25.647) = -8.853
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.853| = 8.853

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25054, race ID 1606 (538 database).