2006 Senate · RI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%
D+7.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.038) = 6.963
- Absolute miss = |6.963| = 6.963
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25044, race ID 1604 (538 database).