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2006 Senate · NM

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.2% · Republican 37.5%

D+20.7

The certified result

Democrat 70.61% · Republican 29.33%

D+41.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.2 − 37.5 = 20.70
  2. Actual margin = 70.605 − 29.331 = 41.274
  3. Signed miss = 20.70 − (41.274) = -20.575
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.575| = 20.575

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25024, race ID 1599 (538 database).