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2006 Senate · NJ

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 37%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 37 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (16.019) = -4.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.019| = 4.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25018, race ID 1598 (538 database).