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2006 Senate · MT

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.16% · Republican 48.29%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.162 − 48.286 = 0.876
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.876) = 0.124
  4. Absolute miss = |0.124| = 0.124

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25016, race ID 1595 (538 database).