2006 Senate · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 43%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.270) = 0.730
- Absolute miss = |0.730| = 0.730
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25011, race ID 1594 (538 database).