2006 Governor · MN
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 715 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46.1% · Republican 44.7%
D+1.4
The certified result
Democrat 45.73% · Republican 46.69%
R+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.1 − 44.7 = 1.40
- Actual margin = 45.733 − 46.691 = -0.958
- Signed miss = 1.40 − (-0.958) = 2.358
- Absolute miss = |2.358| = 2.358
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25008, race ID 1345 (538 database).