2006 Senate · CT
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42.5% · Republican 6%
D+36.5
The certified result
Democrat 39.73% · Republican 9.62%
D+30.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42.5 − 6 = 36.50
- Actual margin = 39.730 − 9.623 = 30.107
- Signed miss = 36.50 − (30.107) = 6.393
- Absolute miss = |6.393| = 6.393
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24991, race ID 1583 (538 database).