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2006 Senate · WA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 804 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 43%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.85% · Republican 39.93%

D+16.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 43 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.853 − 39.933 = 16.920
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (16.920) = -2.919
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.919| = 2.919

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24897, race ID 1610 (538 database).