Skip to content

2006 Senate · VA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 50%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 50 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.393) = -0.394
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.394| = 0.394

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24896, race ID 1609 (538 database).