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2006 Senate · UT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 66%

R+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.07% · Republican 62.36%

R+31.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 66 = -32.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.065 − 62.361 = -31.296
  3. Signed miss = -32.00 − (-31.296) = -0.704
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.704| = 0.704

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24895, race ID 1607 (538 database).