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2006 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,004 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 65%

R+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 61.69%

R+25.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 65 = -36.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.045 − 61.692 = -25.647
  3. Signed miss = -36.00 − (-25.647) = -10.353
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.353| = 10.353

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24894, race ID 1606 (538 database).