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2006 Senate · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.723) = -2.277
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.277| = 2.277

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24893, race ID 1605 (538 database).