Skip to content

2006 Governor · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 31%

D+32.0

The certified result

Democrat 68.60% · Republican 29.74%

D+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 31 = 32.00
  2. Actual margin = 68.598 − 29.741 = 38.857
  3. Signed miss = 32.00 − (38.857) = -6.857
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.857| = 6.857

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24893, race ID 1357 (538 database).