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2006 Senate · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (17.354) = -1.354
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.354| = 1.354

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24892, race ID 1603 (538 database).