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2006 Governor · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 47.93%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 47.926 = -4.006
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-4.006) = -2.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.994| = 2.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24890, race ID 1349 (538 database).