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2006 Governor · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 501 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.73% · Republican 46.69%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.733 − 46.691 = -0.958
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-0.958) = 4.958
  4. Absolute miss = |4.958| = 4.958

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24887, race ID 1345 (538 database).