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2006 Senate · MD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.20%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.206 − 44.195 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (10.011) = -4.010
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.010| = 4.010

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24885, race ID 1589 (538 database).