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2006 Senate · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 877 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 39%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.43% · Republican 35.02%

D+24.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 39 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.431 − 35.015 = 24.416
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (24.416) = -6.416
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.416| = 6.416

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24881, race ID 1582 (538 database).