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2006 Governor · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 798 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 41%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.59% · Republican 35.44%

D+27.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.585 − 35.440 = 27.145
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (27.145) = -11.145
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.145| = 11.145

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24879, race ID 1330 (538 database).