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2006 Senate · MA

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 585 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 66% · Republican 25%

D+41.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.88% · Republican 29.48%

D+37.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66 − 25 = 41.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.883 − 29.482 = 37.401
  3. Signed miss = 41.00 − (37.401) = 3.599
  4. Absolute miss = |3.599| = 3.599

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24872, race ID 1590 (538 database).