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2006 Governor · MA

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 585 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 29%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.63% · Republican 35.33%

D+20.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 29 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.635 − 35.334 = 20.301
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (20.301) = 4.699
  4. Absolute miss = |4.699| = 4.699

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24872, race ID 1341 (538 database).