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2006 Governor · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,008 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 37%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 37 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (23.893) = -1.892
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.892| = 1.892

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24866, race ID 1351 (538 database).