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2006 Senate · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 780 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.723) = 2.723
  4. Absolute miss = |2.723| = 2.723

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24845, race ID 1605 (538 database).