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2006 Governor · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 563 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 32%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 32 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (23.893) = 6.108
  4. Absolute miss = |6.108| = 6.108

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24839, race ID 1351 (538 database).