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2006 Senate · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 630 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.270) = -5.270
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.270| = 5.270

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24834, race ID 1594 (538 database).