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2006 Senate · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.270) = 0.730
  4. Absolute miss = |0.730| = 0.730

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24833, race ID 1594 (538 database).