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2006 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 606 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 39%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 39 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (20.120) = -4.120
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.120| = 4.120

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24829, race ID 1592 (538 database).