Skip to content

2006 Senate · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 803 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (15.652) = -8.652
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.652| = 8.652

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24823, race ID 1591 (538 database).