Skip to content

2006 Senate · MD

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 694 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 54.21% · Republican 44.20%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.206 − 44.195 = 10.011
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (10.011) = -10.010
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.010| = 10.010

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24819, race ID 1589 (538 database).