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2006 Governor · MD

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 694 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.69% · Republican 46.16%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.691 − 46.159 = 6.532
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (6.532) = -5.532
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.532| = 5.532

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24819, race ID 1342 (538 database).