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2006 Senate · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 682 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 36%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.30% · Republican 38.10%

D+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 36 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.301 − 38.096 = 22.205
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (22.205) = 0.795
  4. Absolute miss = |0.795| = 0.795

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24815, race ID 1585 (538 database).