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2006 Governor · FL

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 682 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-7.073) = 5.073
  4. Absolute miss = |5.073| = 5.073

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24815, race ID 1334 (538 database).