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2006 Governor · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 553 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 53%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.91% · Republican 55.88%

R+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 53 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.905 − 55.881 = -16.976
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-16.976) = 1.976
  4. Absolute miss = |1.976| = 1.976

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24808, race ID 1331 (538 database).