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2006 Senate · MN

Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,027 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 34%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 34 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (20.120) = -0.120
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.120| = 0.120

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24719, race ID 1592 (538 database).